Macro Signal Dashboard

Aggregated signals from all scanner feeds — last updated 10 Nov 2026.

Global Avg Policy Rate
3.21%
↓ 15bp this quarter · 8 central banks
US CPI (YoY)
2.4%
↓ 0.2pp vs previous · below forecast
US 10Y Yield
4.35%
2Y-10Y spread: +10bp (normal)
US NFP Surprise
12K
Forecast 110K · major miss ↓

Central Bank Rate Cycle

Of 8 tracked central banks, 6 are in easing mode, 1 on hold (BOJ normalising), 1 paused (PBOC). The global rate cycle has shifted decisively to cuts in Q4 2026.

Easing (cutting) 6 / 8
On hold 1 / 8
Hiking (BOJ) 1 / 8
Avg rate change (90d) −22 bp

Economic Data Scorecard

Of 8 major releases this cycle, 5 beat forecast, 3 missed. The largest surprise was US NFP at 12K vs 110K expected — a 89% miss.

Beat forecast 5 / 8
Missed forecast 3 / 8
Largest beat AU CPI −0.2pp
Largest miss US NFP −89%

Sovereign Yield Landscape

The US 2Y-10Y curve has re-steepened to +10bp after 27 months of inversion — a historically significant signal. German Bunds remain deeply negative in real terms at 2.15% nominal. JGB yields at 1.05% reflect BOJ's slow normalisation path.

4.25
US 2Y
4.35
US 10Y
4.52
US 30Y
2.15
DE 10Y
1.05
JP 10Y
4.25
UK 10Y
4.45
AU 10Y
3.55
CA 10Y

Central Bank Policy Tracker

Current policy rates, last change, and next scheduled meeting for 8 major central banks — as of 10 Nov 2026.

Central Bank Country Current Rate Last Change Next Meeting Stance
🇺🇸 Fed FOMC United States 4.50% −25 bp
Sep 2026		 18 Dec 2026 Easing
🇪🇺 ECB European Central Bank Eurozone 3.25% −25 bp
Oct 2026		 12 Dec 2026 Easing
🇯🇵 BOJ Bank of Japan Japan 0.75% +15 bp
Jul 2026		 19 Dec 2026 Hiking
🇬🇧 BOE Bank of England United Kingdom 4.75% −25 bp
Sep 2026		 18 Dec 2026 Easing
🇦🇺 RBA Reserve Bank of Australia Australia 4.10% −25 bp
Nov 2026		 09 Dec 2026 Easing
🇨🇳 PBOC People's Bank of China China 3.10% −20 bp
Oct 2026		 20 Dec 2026 Easing
🇨🇭 SNB Swiss National Bank Switzerland 1.00% −25 bp
Sep 2026		 18 Dec 2026 Easing
🇨🇦 BOC Bank of Canada Canada 3.75% −50 bp
Oct 2026		 11 Dec 2026 Aggressive Ease

Rate Cycle Summary

The global monetary policy cycle has shifted decisively to easing in Q4 2026. The Fed, ECB, BOE, RBA, PBOC, SNB, and BOC have all cut rates in the past 90 days. Only the BOJ remains in a hiking cycle, slowly normalising after decades of negative rates.

December 2026 Cluster

All 8 central banks meet within a 12-day window in December 2026 (9–20 Dec). Markets expect coordinated easing with the Fed (−25bp), ECB (−25bp), and BOC (−25bp) leading. BOJ is expected to hold at 0.75%.

Economic Data Deltas

Actual vs forecast vs previous for major economic releases — color-coded by surprise direction.

Release Country Period Actual Forecast Previous Surprise
Non-Farm Payrolls 🇺🇸 US Oct 2026 12K 110K 254K −89% Miss
CPI (YoY) 🇺🇸 US Oct 2026 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% −0.1pp Beat
GDP (QoQ Annualised) 🇺🇸 US Q3 2026 2.8% 3.0% 3.1% −0.2pp Miss
ISM Manufacturing PMI 🇺🇸 US Oct 2026 46.5 48.0 47.2 −1.5 Miss
Retail Sales (MoM) 🇺🇸 US Oct 2026 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% +0.1pp Beat
HICP (YoY) 🇪🇺 EU Oct 2026 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% −0.1pp Beat
CPI (YoY) 🇦🇺 AU Q3 2026 2.8% 3.0% 3.8% −0.2pp Beat
CPI (YoY) 🇯🇵 JP Oct 2026 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% −0.2pp Beat

Key Signal: US NFP Collapse

October NFP at 12K vs 110K expected is the largest negative surprise of the cycle. Combined with ISM Manufacturing PMI at 46.5 (contraction), this signals a potential labour market inflection. Markets have priced in a 85% probability of a 50bp Fed cut in December.

Disinflation Trend Confirmed

CPI prints across US (2.4%), EU (2.0%), AU (2.8%), and JP (2.3%) all came in below forecast — confirming a synchronised global disinflation trend. This gives central banks cover to continue the easing cycle into 2027.

Sovereign Yield Monitor

Benchmark sovereign yields and curve spreads across major economies — as of 10 Nov 2026.

Instrument Country Yield 1D Change 1W Change Status
US Treasury 2Y 🇺🇸 US 4.25% −3 bp −8 bp Normal
US Treasury 10Y 🇺🇸 US 4.35% −2 bp −5 bp Normal
US Treasury 30Y 🇺🇸 US 4.52% −1 bp −3 bp Normal
German Bund 10Y 🇪🇺 DE 2.15% −2 bp −6 bp Low
JGB 10Y 🇯🇵 JP 1.05% +1 bp +3 bp Rising
UK Gilt 10Y 🇬🇧 UK 4.25% −2 bp −4 bp Normal
ACGB 10Y 🇦🇺 AU 4.45% −3 bp −7 bp Normal
Canada 10Y 🇨🇦 CA 3.55% −2 bp −5 bp Normal

Curve Spreads

US 2Y–10Y Spread +10 bp
US 2Y–30Y Spread +27 bp
US 10Y − DE 10Y +220 bp
US 10Y − JP 10Y +330 bp
US 10Y − UK 10Y +10 bp

Curve Re-Steepening Signal

The US 2Y-10Y spread has normalised to +10bp after 27 consecutive months of inversion (the longest since 1980). Historically, curve un-inversion has preceded recessions by 6–18 months. However, the current re-steepening is driven by front-end falls (Fed cuts) rather than back-end rises — a more benign signal.

Bull Steepener

Yield Comparison (10Y Benchmarks)

4.35
US 10Y
4.25
UK 10Y
4.45
AU 10Y
3.55
CA 10Y
2.15
DE 10Y
1.05
JP 10Y

Data shown is sample data for demonstration. When the TRADEPRESS Worker API is deployed, this page will fetch live macro data from external sources (FRED, ECB, Treasury) via the /api/macro endpoint. The flatnewsticker.js module handles tab navigation and will be extended to fetch and render live data.